Mailbag: Answering your offseason Michigan hockey questions
With details like assistant coaches, non-conference opponents and final rosters yet to be finalized, there's still plenty of offseason left for Michigan hockey. Let's answer some questions.
It might be the offseason doldrums, but there’s plenty to talk about regarding Michigan men’s hockey. As such, I wanted to use this space to answer some folks’ questions about the 2023-24 season and beyond.
Without wasting time, let’s get into it.
Giantladysquirrels asks: “Your projected top line of Duke/Nazar/Brindley is interesting — How do you think that group would compensate for being entirely under 5-foot-10?”
I’ll expand this question to the entire top six, because I think it’s an interesting wrinkle to next season’s roster. Out of the seven-player mix of players expected to play in the top six — that is, the guys I predicted plus second line center TJ Hughes — just two reach 6-foot in Jackson Hallum and Rutger McGroarty. In fact, Michigan’s current average height stands at just 5-foot-11.57, which would rank sixth-shortest in the NCAA last season. The two tallest players — Steven Holtz at 6-foot-4 and Josh Eernisse at 6-foot-3 — do a lot of the heavy lifting.
The scoring faction of this roster is well undersized, though it compensates by being fleet of foot. I think the Wolverines’ general speed and agility will make up some of the perceived height disadvantage since a lot of bigger players aren’t the most dynamic skaters. Those tall skaters’ long strides mask a lot of technical quirks in their skating up until the college ranks, and Michigan’s forwards can beat them with hustle and technique. That’s an advantage of Michigan coach Brandon Naurato teaching useful knowledge about the mechanics of skating from his time as a skill developer.
To recenter this discussion around height, I also don’t think it’s a huge issue because the smaller forwards on the roster aren’t the type to shy from a battle — i.e. they don’t play small. Gavin Brindley is one of the shortest players on the roster at a generous 5-foot-9, and yet he’s one of the most willing to engage in puck battles. I’ve seen him take on some big boys and come away the victor. Height is only a barrier if players allow it to become a mental block.
Specific to Duke-Nazar-Brindley, the skating component applies to the latter two, but Duke is still working on his mobility. However, his ability to fight in the dirty areas — his proverbial office at the net front, for example — overcomes any height qualms. Height might be a worry at first glance, but previous experience watching these players tells me they’ll do just fine.
Jennie Dalton asks: “How concerned are you about any late departures from the Michigan hockey squad with so many Wolverines going to development camps?”
If you didn’t know, 23 Michigan commits, players and alums are skating in development camps this summer. That’s a symptom of just how much talent has passed through the gates of Yost Ice Arena the past few years.
https://twitter.com/ConnorEaregood/status/1678419539757879297
Regarding departures, I don’t think this is a worry at all. The core of the team is young — sophomores and juniors — and their draft teams would’ve signed them in April were they interested in bringing them up to the pro ranks next season. These development camps seem to be more for mental growth and skill lessons rather than any recruiting right here and now.
In the future, maybe some of the UDFA guys favor the teams they worked out with over the summer, but I think that’s more a question for March and April than July.
Mr mtl asks: “What are the biggest challenges this season for Michigan Hockey? How far do you think they’ll go?”
The biggest challenge is replacing Adam Fantilli’s production — or rather, replacing some of it. He was undoubtedly the best player in the country last season and losing him to Columbus is a major loss, especially this late in the offseason.
With a healthy Frank Nazar and poised Nick Moldenhauer, I think this team can survive. One player, even of Fantilli’s caliber, can’t play every second, anyway, and the Wolverines have alright center depth without him. His blend of power and playmaking is sure to be sorely missed, but that’s part of the deal when a program can recruit and subsequently develop NHL-ready talent.
As far as predictions for next season, I need to see the completed schedule to throw my full opinion in a single direction. However, I feel fairly confident in saying that third or fourth in the Big Ten is the absolute floor of this team as of right now. Any worse of a performance would point to serious mismanagement of the talent on this roster, especially in a Big Ten field that’s getting deeper by the season. There are 11 draftees and 16 development camp invitees on the roster, a sign of its overall talent and potential. Now, it’s up to the players and staff to achieve.
Switching gears to the national rankings, I think Michigan should have a fairly similar year to last season’s non-conference success. Michigan should beat Lindenwood in non-conference play, and I’d take them over a youth-movement UMass team that’s relying on big freshman contributions. Providence is tricker to predict based on how its roster is chock full of gifted players. I think I give the Friars the edge as things stand right now, and I’ll guess that’s a 1-1 split on Michigan’s home ice. Rounding out the schedule we know with St. Cloud State, I think that depends on Michigan’s health during Thanksgiving break and who starts to make progress in their game during that crucial weekend. I’ll predict a split since the Huskies have home-ice advantage.
The last non-conference is unknown, but it will likely be one of Ferris State, Augustana or St. Lawrence on the October 20-21 weekend. I say that because Northeastern and Vermont are also open, but Michigan already has two Hockey East opponents scheduled. My previous analysis also included Ivy League teams that don’t traditionally play that weekend, so they can be ruled out. Ohio State also has an opening that weekend, which could point to a non-conference series against an independent on another weekend — or a team with a random bye week. For the sake of prediction, I think Michigan should sweep any of those three teams. Overall, 8-2-0 outside of the Big Ten is a very reasonable outcome, though a 7-3 mark seems a bit likely with the caliber of SCSU and Providence.
Michigan is still a Tournament team without Adam Fantilli, and I’d argue that anything less is a missed opportunity given the makeup of this roster. I don’t think this is a Frozen Four team as things currently stand, but it could get there if the cards fall right and players make strides in their games during the season. Of course, I could be proven wrong once I see this roster play, which is what happens when you make season predictions before the schedule ink has even hit the paper.
Jessiemae asks a few questions. I’ll answer the first few: First, “Completely silly: which guy on the team do you think would do well on The Price is Right?”
I’ll give you two names: Jackson Hallum and Steven Holtz. Hallum makes it on stage because he bets $1 on a set of luggage, and everyone else way overshoots the price. He winds up playing the Grocery Game and wins. He spins 60 cents and risks it all to spin one more time, nailing 60 cents to the shock of Drew Carey. Everyone else in his cycle goes over $1.
Holtz gets the exact price right for a brand new car, and his engineering background helps him figure out the exact angle to roll a Plinko chip. He puts a little backspin on the puck, and it slides perfectly into the $10k slot. He also hits $1 twice on the wheel.
In the showcase showdown, Hallum projects well under what a trip to Cancun would cost, but Holtz gets within a couple thousand dollars on a trip to Napa Valley because of his recent trip to San Jose Sharks development camp. Steven Holtz is your Price is Right champion.
Another from jessiemae: “Serious: what do you think of Naur’s recruiting thus far? Has there been a swing from Michigan to State with NTDP players?”
This response will be a long one, so buckle up.
Naurato’s recruiting started off strong in the eyes of public perception thanks to big pickups in Nick Moldenhauer, Michael Hage, Aidan Park and Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen. In the past month or so, however, things have slowed down significantly as players and coaches shift toward the strong 2007 class whose commitment frenzy will start August 1. This is the class that will really show what noise the new regime can make on the recruiting trail.
Naurato has some good pickups, but I don’t believe he’s really shown what he can do on the recruiting front just yet. He’s gotten the big names, but not the accents that can make or break a roster — most of his depth pickups have been really solid portal adds.
There’s also a lot of room to fill out the 2006 group, especially since there will be around seven players leaving as seniors and fifth-years, let alone any early exit draft picks. That means that Michigan would be at 27 skaters next season, right where it was last year. But that’s ignoring early departures from underclassmen, which opens up more spots — and scholarship spots at that.
With that being said, Michigan must stay aggressive on the recruiting front, and I believe it will be. Picking up guys like NTDP defenseman Logan Hensler or forward James Hagens could be significant wins, especially since the latter’s brother is a Harvard commit. There’s also the current recruiting battle for defenseman Artyom Levshunov, a projected top-10 pick and much needed right-hand D for this upcoming season. Popular belief is that he’ll be a one-and-done, but Naurato has made it clear that he wants guys to stick around longer for their development and educations.
Walk-on spots could get interesting, as the roster still has a couple spots open (I’m sure folks remember that it played at 29 skaters in 2021-22 and still had trouble fielding a team with World Junior guys gone). This is where the depth recruiting needs to occur, with guys from leagues like the NAHL/BCHL/AJHL. These players not only fill out roster needs, but they provide a foundation for the one- and two-year prospects to complement. These players could offer valuable insight into the direction Naurato wants to take Michigan’s recruiting.
A huge issue here is the need to fully hire assistant coaches. CHN’s Mike McMahon reported that USHL Chicago associate head coach Matt Deschamps is expected to be the new assistant coach, while NTDP director of player personnel Kevin Reiter is expected to fill the third assistant spot that the NCAA added this offseason. However, neither has an official email registered through Michigan, which means the hiring process is still taking place. I’m not sure what sort of hangups are occurring in the hiring process, but it’s been more than a month since those initial reports occurred and there’s been no additional noise on the assistant coaching front. The Michigan salary info page hasn’t flipped to 2023-24 yet either, so there’s no way to confirm through that avenue either. No other rumblings have surfaced since then. If any readers have a tip on this, you know where to reach me.
Switching to the MSU topic, I think a lot of the initial NTDP wave has just been guys that Adam Nightingale really impacted during his tenure as the program’s coach. A flip from Trey Augustine and commitments from a slew of other guys looks like a major issue for Michigan. In reality, these are just the results of Nightingale being loved by those players. Wisconsin, for example, didn’t all of a sudden become a recruiting powerhouse once the Mankato-bound players followed Mike Hastings to MadCity. He simply attracted players with whom he cultivated a good relationship.
And because I know mentions of MSU and Wisconsin in the same sentence will throw some folks into a tizzy about how MSU is overhyped — I fully think MSU is a top-three Big Ten team or bust next season, and I’d even say they should be ranked second in the conference. Augustine can steal games, while the forward corps got a lot better through the portal. Even if the defense will rely on a lot of freshmen and sophomores, players like Nash Nienhuis are solid contributors and should have Munn rocking all winter long.
Third and final question from jessiemae: Who do you think will step up in the absence of Mackie and Adam? Or if Truscott and Edwards aren’t 100% at the start of the season? How are we feeling about the goalie situation?”
The last part was going to be the topic of my post this week, but I’m writing that more in-depth for The Daily. Stay tuned for what’s to come, because I’m really proud of how it’s turning out. You’ve never seen any content like it from me before, which is a lofty statement.
Anyway, Michigan has a big hole to fill in Fantilli, as well as Samoskevich. No one on the roster can play in such a versatile and elite manner as Fantilli, and no one can rip shots like Samoskevich. I sort of addressed this earlier, but I don’t think the way to overcome these losses is replacement. Rather, Michigan needs to lean into its identity of playing structured, high-pace hockey and outthinking the opponent. With more of his players in place, Naurato can lean into the playmaking and depth contributions that he wants. He doesn’t have to chase the luxuries of yesteryear’s elite prospects. Like I said earlier, you just aren’t going to replace Fantilli anyway.
On the topic of defense, Michigan’s defensive depth is miles above what it was last season, and that’s an area I think was a major issue last season as injuries piled up. While the top end isn’t on par with someone as dynamic as Luke Hughes, the average talent of this defense is leagues better. Marshall Warren can be a No. 1 D on most teams. A sophomore season Seamus Casey could be a No. 1 D on any team. Even guys like Luca Fantilli or Johnny Druskinis are good enough to play on an average D-1 roster, but they’re going to be hard pressed for minutes given who all is in front of them. That’s a good thing — so long as Naurato can keep their faith from a development standpoint and prevent any transfer portal drama.
The topic of defense naturally transitions into Edwards and Truscott, who project to be the top pair next season. Edwards isn’t skating at New Jersey Devils development camp, while Truscott is coming off an upper body injury that ended his season last year.
I’m not privy to any medical info — Michigan doesn’t even give those updates, as Naurato often cites the age-old “I’m not a doctor” answer — but I would wager that Truscott will be on the blue line for opening night. Same with Edwards, since there’s a lot of time between now and October.
Part of playing high-level hockey deep into the postseason means playing too much and getting worn down. I’m sure other guys were banged up from the Frozen Four run, too. I wouldn’t pay the injury bug much mind until closer to the season.
Finally, Brendan Roose asks: “Hey Connor, first time long time. Have you ever considered what would happen if they melted all the ice in the arena and played the games in a swimming pool? I’ll hang up and listen.”
As much as this question is a shitpost, I think it’s funny so I’ll give my best guess. Ignoring the obvious difficulty of cradling a puck underwater, I think it’d be like basketball in a pool — lots of elbows, tackles, cheapshots and near-drownings. Speaking of basketball, when are you going to play pickup again, Brendan? We miss you.
That concludes this mailbag. If you have a question and want it answered for next time, feel free to comment down below and I’ll try to answer it. Thank you so much to the folks who submitted questions, as well as you — the reader — for listening to my rambling answers.