What roster projections say about Michigan hockey's recruiting needs
Looking at its roster projections a couple years out, it's easy to see what needs Michigan must fill through recruiting.
Michigan recruits itself.
Its coaching staff, its players, even its rivals will tell you as much. But it takes two to tango, and the Wolverines’ must undergo the unenviable task of picking the right prospects to make the program as dominant as possible.
I say unenviable because college recruiting for a school of Michigan’s pedigree is a constant balancing act. On one hand, coaches have to pick up the top-end talents afforded by its premium status — the mythic Adam Fantillis, Luke Hugheses and Owen Powers that instantly raise the bar. On the other, coaches also have to balance out their roster with long-term prospects who will stay after those “unicorn” players carve into NHL ice.
Why am I waxing philosophical on recruiting dilemmas? Well, there’s less than a month until a crucial recruiting date — August 1, the day when college coaches can initiate recruiting talks with high school juniors (‘07s, for this season). Before then, I feel that it’s a valuable exercise to project what the Wolverines’ roster looks like the next couple of seasons. Doing so reveals the direction that Michigan’s recruiting should focus on, which can point us toward the solutions that Brandon Naurato & Co. might be considering.
Without further ado, let’s break it down:
2023-24
We can’t discuss the future without establishing reference materials. To do that, let’s view what I believe is the best-guess depth chart of the 2023-24 roster as of today. Note this isn’t where I think players will play, but rather their value at each position before cheffing up any line combos.
As you can see, the core of this team is its sophomore class, held steady at 12 strong despite losing two members of its freshman iteration (Adam Fantilli → NHL and Tyler Shea → Brown, for the trivia fans at home). In a similar manner to the 2021-22 roster, this sophomore class is going to monopolize most of the lineup positions. Its overall talent, however, makes me think there won’t be a mass exodus after the season like there was in 2022 when a lot of those players left for the pros.
2023-24 needs
Right Defense
Looking at the right side, sophomore Seamus Casey and senior Steven Holtz can play (to varying degrees of success) up and down the lineup. But after those two, it’s not such a rosy picture. Sophomores Johnny Druskinis and Brendan Miles were alright last season in low capacity, substitution roles. However, they would need to take major development steps this offseason to play a consistent part on the blue line in 2023-24, and that creates a need for another righty.
Right-handed D are premium players in any league, but Michigan is still chasing an elite one in 2024 draft prospect Artyom Levshunov. If the Wolverines land him, he instantly raises the quality of that right-side depth by a lot. In the end, I think the current solution is to put Ethan Edwards on his off hand, but Levshunov could change the defensive calculus.
Third-string Goalie
Michigan has its starting tandem in Noah West and Jacob Barczewski, but it needs a freshman to fill the third backup spot. That goalie can play a key role in locker room culture, as well as making an impact in net during practices. Long term, a goalie capable of playing backup to goalie commit Stephen Peck is ideal for Michigan, but most goalies of that ilk have long had college logos next to their names. The third-stringer this year will likely be a junior goalie who can contribute in practice and maybe get in some games well later in their career.
2024-25
You’ve heard my analysis of the current roster before, but now comes the meat and potatoes — what does the future hold? To keep it short, it holds studs.
As you can see, this roster becomes a split between the 2026 class and the incoming freshmen. The latter includes the likes of forwards Michael Hage, Aidan Park and Kristian Epperson, who should all be immediate contributors at the college level. On the blue line, expect Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen to get playing time almost immediately. In net, Stephen Peck will be the starting goaltender for multiple years unless some major changes happen. Note that italicized names represent flight risk — that is, players who could leave for the pro ranks. If the majority of those players stay for the 2024-25 season, Michigan is a scary team. Without them, it’s still a Big Ten contender.
2024-25 needs
Top-pair Right Defense
If the 2023-24 roster needed a righty to be deep, the 2024-25 group needs a couple just to remain competitive. Junior-year Miles and Druskinis should provide valuable depth in the bottom four, but this projected group lacks any sort of game breaker on the right if Seamus Casey decides to leave.
As previously mentioned, those guys are rare, but elite defense is the bread and butter of Michigan hockey. And situations beyond the current coaching staff’s control have sort of handcuffed it.
Namely, I’m referring to the tumultuous offseason of 2022, when Michigan athletics director Warde Manuel dragged his feet in addressing the Mel Pearson misconduct, and thus had public scorn cast on his hockey program up until the season started. With no perceived stability in the coaching staff until Naurato got a chance to put his feet under him, Michigan missed out on some quality recruits in the 2006 class — especially because the peak of the drama fell right around when he August 1 recruitment access rolled around. That ‘06 class composes the vast majority of the 2024 freshmen, which likely played a role in the lack of pickups for the 2024-25 season.
So the task at hand for Michigan’s staff is to overcome that obstacle this season. The most notable prospect to fill that need would be uncommitted ‘06 defenseman Logan Hensler — ranked No. 8 overall in the 2006 class by PuckPreps. A 6-foot-5 giant from the outskirts of St. Paul, he put up a solid season with the US NTDP alongside left-shot defenseman Noah Lapointe (brother of Philippe, of Michigan’s current roster). Both would be nice adds, but Hensler’s size and right-handedness should make him the top of the UM recruiting board for this season.
Backup Goalie
Not only does Michigan need a third-string backup for the 2024-25 season, but it needs a backup in general. Unless Stephen Peck is somehow the greatest athletic freak ever recruited, playing 34 games for a contender as a freshman isn’t a sustainable idea. Forcing him to play too many games could limit his development and make him fatigued, which only hurts Michigan in the long run in addition to any momentary struggles Peck might face during the season.
Whoever fills the third-string role this upcoming season might stay on the roster for 2024-25, filling that position for a second year. But who becomes the primary backup is a major question mark. Immediate thoughts are that Noah West could take a grad year and tandem with Peck, but that just delays the goalie add until the next season. Maybe that’s beneficial in a sense that the one-year difference could help that goalie get into games by at least their senior year. However, depth at goalie is never a bad option — especially in the age of the transfer portal.
This gap highlights how significant losing Trey Augustine was for the Wolverines. He would’ve taken the crease in 2023-24 after Erik Portillo went pro, and likely stayed at least two seasons. Then, the next goalie prospect would have time to develop before taking the reins. Now, the heir apparent must do it on the spot.
Scoring Right Wing
This is a lower stakes need because I think Garrett Schifsky will settle into the right side thanks to the center depth both ahead of him and behind him, though there’s no way to be certain until he plays. Nevertheless, Michigan will be at just four projected right wings in 2024-25, assuming Gavin Brindley doesn’t join the Columbus Wolverines.
That presents the need for depth on the right side, especially in a scoring sense. Kienan Draper plays a forecheck-heavy game that is better suited for the bottom six, while Joshua Eernisse and Mikey Burchill are players whose roles more align with a middle six scoring role than any sort of top six consistency. Hage can play on the right side, but his playmaking and skating will be best utilized at the center position, especially if Frank Nazar III signs with Chicago or TJ Hughes goes pro while he’s still in his younger 20s. A scoring right wing who can play in the top six should be a recruiting target, whether that means adding a freshman or utilizing one of the last COVID fifth-years available.
2025-26
Moving on to the final projectable year, 2025-26 includes many of the same issues as the previous years. I won’t detail those — right defense, backup goalie, etc. — because I quite literally just broke them down and I assume some solution will be met by the time October 2025 rolls around.
2025-26 needs
Getting into the meat of things, the 2025 freshman class — 2007 in recruiting terms — is a light one with just a pair of commits. Michigan needs adds across the board, but I think the center position and the left side of the defense are most important (again, assuming issues on the right wing and goal positions are addressed in 2024).
This is the class that will represent the first true Naurato recruiting class, with no interference from members of the old regime. This could set the tone for what his program looks like long term — no matter if he stays for a contract extension or not.
Names like forwards Cullen Potter, Cole McKinney and Cooper Simpson stand out as way-too-early thoughts of who could be a part of that freshman class, but it’s a little early to tell who exactly with whom Naurato’s pitches will resonate. Those guys are among the best of the best, and every program will be hitting the phones. Adding one or more would be a major recruiting coup.
On left defense, Asher Barnett seems like a high-value recruit. On his visit to Yost last season, he seemed to enjoy the experience — and the company of an injured Jacob Truscott — during his visit A Chicago area left-shot defenseman who can skate well and envision plays, he fits the Michigan defenseman profile quite well.
Barnett also raises another concept: There are a ton of good hockey players in the Chicago area thanks to the Blackhawks’ Stanley Cups as athletic inspiration. With proximity to both Chicago and Ontario, Michigan has a unique geographic advantage for recruiting players from both areas. To be fair, so does Michigan State and even Western Michigan, but the Wolverines will look to create some serious pipelines in the future.
Final Thoughts
As we wrap up this breakdown, the status of Michigan’s recruiting leaves the following conclusions regarding roster needs.
2023-24: Right defense, goalie
2024-25: Right defense, goalie, right wing
2025-26: Left defense, center
Additions at every position could make this team strong, but these are just the highlights that must be addressed to keep Michigan in its title contending state. Recruiting players is all about finding the right fits, especially if you’re a privileged program such as Michigan. Now, it’s time to watch the clock tick down to August 1, when the future of Michigan Hockey could be constructed.
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